Summary of Larry Swedroe & Kevin Grogan's Reducing the Risk of Black Swans

Please note: This is a companion version & not the original book. Sample Book Insights: #1 Investors who extrapolate past stock market returns into the future fail to take into account the fact that current stock market valuations have a significant impact on future returns. The Gordon Constant Growth Dividend Discount Model, for example, predicts future real stock market returns of about 4 to 5 percent. #2 The second mistake investors make is to treat the expected return of their portfolio as deterministic rather than the mean of a potentially wide dispersion of possible returns. #3 Portfolios with a high standard deviation aren’t very appealing to most investors, since they are generally risk averse. They will take on more risk to get more return, even if that means sacrificing some of the great returns in the right tail of the distribution. #4 The Capital Asset Pricing Model, or CAPM, is a mathematical equation that determines a stock’s expected return. It was created in the 1950s and is still used today. However, it has been proven time and time again to be inaccurate, and does not take into account the impact of risk.