The Four Tests

A “lucidly argued” (Kirkus Reviews), illuminating, and ultimately optimistic roadmap for America’s future and the “tests” the United States must meet to maintain leadership and power in the 21st century—from the former US Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

In today’s fraught global and political climate, the assumption that America maintains its dominant status in global politics is waning. The divisions between us, economic changes driven by globalization and technology, as well as climate change, pandemics, and the resurgence of authoritarianism, make it difficult to be optimistic about America’s future. But what if we use this moment as an opportunity to think about what might come next, and how to build what we need to succeed?

If we’re going to allow ourselves to diagnose a “polycrisis” then we should also admit the possibility of “polyprogress.” This book is a roadmap for those who want to take America’s challenges head on, and who hold on to the conviction that we can tackle them.

In The Four Tests, Baer argues that we are living through a transition moment and lays out the four tests we must meet:

-Scale: Can the US maintain enough scale—or create a facsimile of it through deeper partnerships with friends and allies—as China and other countries continue to rise?
-Investment: Can the US muster and effectively direct resources toward investments, particularly investments in people, to lay a foundation for American success in the post-industrial economy?
-Fairness: Can the US address unfairnesses in its economy and society so that they don’t stifle growth and undermine social cohesion in a more competitive world?
-Identity: Can Americans build a thin but shared political identity, inclusive of every American, that can hold us together and help us work together in a difficult global landscape?

While each test poses significant challenges, the US has advantages that some of our most vexing competitors lack. Meeting these tests demands changes in behavior and culture—from politicians, corporate leaders, and citizens. But if we meet these tests, then we can be confident of America’s future. The question is not whether we can succeed—but whether we will.

Straightforward and hopeful, Baer’s pragmatic approach will provide fodder for discussion for Trump-supporting aunts and their Elizabeth Warren–stan nephews far beyond the beltway.